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Thursday, 17 June 2010

The Gulf of Aden

It seems like over the last few months the Gulf of Aden hasn’t really been out of the news with one thing and another and a lot of people with itineries that take them through this stretch of sea have been asking us several questions.

What are our Cruise Lines doing to protect us?
And more importantly; why are cruise ships sailing through there?
For those of you who don’t know where the Gulf of Aden is, it’s located in the Arabian Sea between Yemen, on the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia in the Horn of Africa. In the northwest, it connects with the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which is about 20 miles wide.
The waterway is part of the important Suez Canal shipping route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Arabian Sea in the Indian Ocean with 21,000 ships crossing the gulf annually. The gulf is known by the nickname "Pirate Alley" due to the large amount of pirate activity in the area.
So, with the introductions made, why aren’t Cruise Liners more worried about this area?
Why are they still sailing it?
Well according to one leading industry expert who wanted to remain anonymous, pirates don’t really think cruise ships are worth the effort.
That’s right, they’re not interested!
Something that doesn't really come across in most of the news reports floating around at the moment is that the pirates in this area are not just a bunch of swashbucklers with boats roaming around the high seas trying to ambush any ship they come across. The pirates off the Somali coast are part of larger operations run from ashore by smart business people. They are only interested in making money. They capture a ship, hold it for ransom, get paid and let it go. That simple.
The people in charge of these pirate gangs follow what ships are coming toward the area, decide what would be the easiest (and presumably most profitable) to take, and then send the guys in the boats out to get the ship.
Cruise ships don't really fit into their business models though. They are very different from cargo vessels, and wouldn't be nearly as easy of a target. The pirates are looking for the easiest targets, and even within commercial vessels, different types of vessels have different rates of being targeted.
Cruise ships are actually quite different from the cargo vessels the pirates have been taking, and would be perhaps the hardest to take. First of all cruise ships generally move much faster than the pirates' small boats. And you should believe when they pass through that area, they are moving fast. Just like when you drive through the bad part of town foot to the floor, you want to be through it as quickly as possible, so you increase your speed and don't stop.

Cruise ships are also built differently than most of the cargo vessels and tankers, and therefore, if the pirates can get alongside, they are not nearly as easy to board.
Staffing is another difference. Cargo vessels generally don't have the numbers of people cruise ships do to watch in all directions around the clock, so a cruise ship will probably have more warning of a potential attack by pirates than a cargo vessel would. Along those same lines, cruise ships carry a much larger security force to defend the vessel, should the pirates decide to attack,It will probably far outnumber the pirates.
But there's more. If the pirates did somehow manage to capture a cruise ship, then what? They would face much bigger challenges holding a vessel with several thousand people aboard than they do holding a cargo vessel with a couple dozen people. Again, these pirate groups are smart business people, who have thought this all out. There wouldn't be an overnight solution to the hijacking. The captors don't call the CEO of the company that owns the vessel, agree on a price and funds are wired to the pirates.
Instead to protect themselves, the pirates work through several layers of intermediaries, and the process would take several weeks, at best, to be resolved and have the ship released. During that time the pirates would have to provide food, probably for a couple thousand people, a large amount of fuel to keep powering the ship even minimally, and it would be almost impossible to keep control of that many people.
The law of averages says among the passengers there would be ex-military people, off duty police officers and people who just wouldn't stand for being held captive. God help the pirate that captures my Nan! It would be almost impossible for the captors to learn all the faces as well, so they would be vulnerable to rescue forces slipping aboard and  hiding amongst the passengers waiting for the right time to neutralize the pirates.
It would be an impossible situation for the pirates to deal with.
Again, there are smart business people behind these operations. They have thought this out and why would they want to change a successful business model which is working so well for them and add all this extra risk and expense to their operation? There are about 60 cargo vessels per day passing through the area; all of them would offer easier opportunities for success and profit than a cruise ship.
So in summary as long as your regular travel agent doesn’t book you on to a cargo ship and your Captain remembers to put his foot to the floor when sailing through the area you’ll be fine. And worst comes to the worst and you are boarded make sure you’ve booked the same cruise as my Nan.

Happy Cruising

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